Dave Holman


This trillion dollar bailout is nothing more than a ***** power grab by both sides in D.C. to attempt to nationalize the entire Financial Services Sector in this country.

For those of you who will attempt to “dis” my understanding of the economy, I will point out
1)I am self-employed, and won’t lose my job. My mortgage is fixed and very affordable. I don’t have any consumer debt to speak of. So, the bailout will not help me in any way, and it will, potentially damage me to the tune of thousands of dollars in taxes for God-only-knows how long

2)There is no way it stops here. If Washington succeeds in nationalizing the Financial Sector, Automotive, Retail and every other sector will have their hands out to get theirs, and we end up with complete Socialism.

3)My portfolio (and millions of other peoples) has only been negligibly affected by this correction. I would never invest in “air” which is what the Financial Services Sector is – my money is in commodities, transportation and agriculture – real things, that have intrinsic value….they are holding up pretty well. and

4) I remember the ‘87 market correction, which was roughly TWICE as sharp as this drop, IN ONE DAY, and the only thing done was to curb “program trading” (the abuse d’jour in those days), and within a year and a half the market not only recovered but began a long bull market.

This bailout is not necessary. period

And see…this is what convinces me. Some of you are way far Right, like me, and some of you are way far Left….and on THIS we agree….doesn’t it stand to reason if EVERYONE on both sides can agree, that it really is a bad thing?
asjrb – how long can banks refuse to lend money, and still MAKE money? don’t you think someone will step in, if that happens? Someone out there is willing to make money, I am sure.
What the banks are doing right now is simple blackmail…if we refuse to give in, they will either start lending again, or go away….and someone else will step in…I prefer not to negotiate with terrorists.

Bruce Jack


Swing trading is a popular method of capitalizing on the short-term price variations of the stock market. It has earned a reputation of being a powerful method of maximizing profits at lower risks. The best swing trading strategy involves choosing the right stock and the right market. Swing traders usually choose the stocks that fluctuate at extreme ends. Swing trading strategy is employed in a stable market, because here the prices tend to have minor variations on which the swing trader can capitalize. In a rapidly rising or crashing market, swing trading strategy cannot be employed.

Investing Journal Let me begin with some of the eye – catching metrics that might lead an investor to consider purchasing shares. Investing Journal – this newspaper company has a price – to – earnings ratio of 11.3, a price – to – sales ratio of 0.93, a 5 year average return on capital of 17.6%, and a five year average pre-tax profit margin of 27.4%. Investing Journal – the Journal Register Company has an enterprise value – to – EBITDA ratio of 9.07 and an enterprise value – to – revenue ratio of 2.24. Obviously, this company is carrying a lot of debt. So, perhaps the multiples on the common stock price are deceptive.

Investing Tips – Given the risky nature of playing the stock market, investing tip sheets have become a mainstay of online financial advice. Investing Tips serious investors will want to subscribe to e-mail newsletters sponsored by the sites or to reputable newspapers and journals, but for beginners, the Web offers the easiest way to get acquainted with the market.

Investing the stock market – Some Stock Market References:

Stock: Stock refers to a share in the profit. Stock trading involves ‘buying into ownership’ of a company. Stock is also referred to as equity or shares.

Investor: An investor is the owner of a particular company’s stock. He has ‘claim’, in however small a proportion, to all company assets. The investor shares the company’s earnings.

Stock certificate: The stock certificate represents the stock purchased and defines the return on investment. Offline, the certificate is a fancy document, while online it is a display available at a click on the mouse.

Dividend: This is a distribution of the owned portion of a company’s earnings. It is commonly quoted in terms of a currency amount per share.

Common stock: Common stock represents ownership in a company and claim on a portion of profits. It yields higher returns in the long run.

Preferred stock: It guarantees a fixed dividend forever. In event of liquidation, preferred stock continues to be paid off. Stock is a share in the ownership of a company. When a private company decides to divide its business and allows the public to be a part of the firm, then it sells shares of ownership through stock offerings. For example, if a company sells one million stocks and you buy one share, then you own one-millionth of that company and vice versa.

When a company sells stocks to the public for the first time, then it is called initial public offering (IPO) or new issue. One of the major reasons of selling stocks is to meet the financial needs of the company for its growth and expansion. If a company plans for expansion and if the bankers of the company feel that borrowing money would be a heavy burden, they look to investors and/or shareholders to finance the growth of the company.

investing commodities – Beginner investing information, stock investment advice and help for investors on investment planning, management and strategies, venture capital investment and resources on investment services and firms. The investing commodities – modern era, so frequently referred to as the “information age,” has brought about a new breed of investor who is both savvy and equipped with the necessary technology to make informed decisions. This, coupled with the creation of many new investment vehicles, has transformed investing from owning a few stocks and having a passbook savings account to a more detailed and advanced activity. investing commodities – now, brokerage firms offer a variety of investments, including equities, bonds, CDs, REITs, mutual funds, money market funds, government treasuries, real estate, options, futures, and other derivatives. The Internet, so crucial in relaying information, is an important source of data for today’s investors. The links herein relate specifically to investments and ventures.

Charts candlesticks give you much more information than the simple line chart. They tell you the open and closing price along with the high and low of the day. Even though they both give off the same information I prefer the charts candlesticks because it is much easier to read. If you get use to the bar charts candlesticks it will probably be just as easy. But for new traders the charts candlestick is much easier to read.

Oil ETF will move in tandem with oil price. If oil rises by 20%, then its corresponding OIL ETF will move by the same amount. Thus, this makes it easier on investor. They do not have to figure out both oil price and the company specific issues such as production, cost of extracting oil or even labor unions.

Most energy ETF is futures. This means that they watch the future prices and resources of the energies. For example, oil and gasoline are futures. This energy ETF depends on the future prices of a barrel of oil as well as how much oil is being made and stored. In other words, will there be enough supply to meet the demand. If the prediction is that there won’t be enough, then the obvious follow up is that gas prices will continue to rise. Therefore, anybody owning this energy exchange traded funds are likely to make money on them.

10000 dollars – Some of the simplest strategies work the best but having 10000 dollars today to invest can be a daunting thing to do. Most investors start at the risk profile of any potential investment and doing this is the first step in making sure your investment not only pays off, but that your seed capital stays intact and is returned to you.

Invest 10000 get 10000 bucks in a year? Can you imagine the high risk venture that would offer you a return on your money? In this article we investigate the possibility of returns and if they exist, how can they be achieved. To invest 10000 you must have $10 grand, so you are not stupid. So I am going to speak to you on an advanced level.

Investing 10000 – If each share costs ten cents then you can buy 10,000 shares with $1000. And if a share rises to $12 then you can easily earn $2000 by selling those 10,000 shares. You can sell the shares for $12,000 immediately after investing $10,000. That means you have not made 20% profit but its 100% gain.

http://www.my10000dollars.com/

pilot


hi i come from another country i want to work on wall street. I read a lot about investing/finance/economics i enjoy it too. I am a good trader. i have been doing this for 5 years now. I want to work as a prop trader, equity trader, commodities broker, stock broker, trader, hedge fund trader or analyst, then eventually i want to retire on my own money compounding… do i have to go to ivy league like top 50 school to make this happen? im not the best student i only do good at what i enjoy.. funny thing is i took a personalility test in high school 3 times it said im a perfectionaist! only 1% of the american population is.! Im not really good at anything but trading stocks and i enjoy it too its easy and fun… help!

Larry Swing


Most of us are quite comfortable with investing in cash deposits, government bonds, and stocks for conservative risk-averse investors. We hear these products discussed widely in the financial media. But rarely do we hear commodities discussed as an investment alternative. After all, what do commodities have to offer that stocks haven’t already provided?

Here are reasons why commodities can be a good investment:

- By diversifying your portfolio, the risk can be reduced, especially during recessionary periods such as bear markets where stocks tend to decline and lose value. Commodities tend to rise and this would counter the loss of portfolio value.

- Commodities trend better than stocks, not only on individual or also stock sectors and stock indexes. As such they are a better long-term investment vehicle. Trends tend to last short term such as a few months to a few years. When the trend begins, it is very unlikely there will be sharp reversals or unpleasant surprise.

- Commodity markets have large liquidity. Not all stocks are liquid even if they look very attractive earnings-wise, but exiting can be a painful process. In commodities, all commodities traded are highly liquid.

- Commodities have been trading for more than a century. More than 90% of stocks come and go. None are changed any way so there is more reliability in back-testing (review your strategy on past historical data) than others instruments such as futures and stocks where premiums change from one expiring contract to a new one, or stock-splits.

- At tax time, profits from commodities pay lower taxes than profits from stocks. In addition, there is no need to itemize all the transactions line by line where all stock transactions must be itemized. Long term or short term capital gains do not apply in commodities.

- Due to leverage, the gains can be spectacular, possibly many multiples of the original equity. For a small sum in the account, it is possible to more than double the account equity in a very short period of time.

- If the financial objective of the person is aggressive where he has high tolerance for risk, then commodities may fit is personal tolerance for risk. With a small equity, he can use for high-growth part of the entire diversified portfolio.

Here are some reasons against the investing in commodities:

- Daily Price Limit can prevent the investor from exiting a position if prices have reaches the day’s maximum price rise or decline allowed. This is especially difficult when his position is in a loss. Many times, margin calls will automatically exit the position. However, the account can be in the negative where the investor must fund additional money to the account to get back in black.

- There is lack of research materials covered in the media or in print compared to those covering stocks. The most popular financial books mainly use stocks as examples. Most brokerages and investment banks whose analysts cover industries and stocks. Investors like to see easily available and up-to-the-minute information which can be made available but not in a wide variety.

- The leverage is high, so small losses can make a big impact on the equity. This is a common scenario where the uninitiated and unprepared will see the account being wiped out.

- Future contracts constantly expire. If it’s a long-term holding, contracts must be managed properly changing to forward contracts. This can be tricky because premiums change from one forward contract to the next. Acute attention must be given in doing so.

If the investor is risk-averse in which he is content with small return year to year, then commodities might not be the right investment.

This list should not be considered final for any person to decide if he or she should trade commodities. There are many other factors and priorities, such as financial situation, time and preparation of each person to commit before deciding. To effectively profit from any market, due diligence and preparedness is the method to obtain the desired objectives. Weigh each pro and con carefully and verify the arguments for oneself before committing hard-earned money to waste.

MISES.ORG


Recession: With War or Without It?
by Gary North
by Gary North

DIGG THIS

The world’s economy has been in growth mode at least since 1991. China has been in growth mode since 1979. The American economy had a sharp recession in 1991. Asia had a financial crisis in 1998. America had a very brief, very shallow recession in 2001. The Federal Reserve System pumped in money at an accelerating rate after mid-2000 through 2004, and did not go to tight money until the month Bernanke took over: February 2006. Inflation overcame the recession of 2001, and it overcame the crisis of 9/11, but it created the housing bubble and the commodity bubble.

The housing bubble has popped. This is going to take the price of housing in the United States lower than it is today. I think 20% lower is a conservative figure. We are nowhere near the end of this popped bubble.

The commodity bubble is still in full force. It is a worldwide bubble. The price of energy and the price of rice and other food commodities have received most of the attention.

Federal Reserve policy since early 2006 has been one of relatively stable money. There is a lot of chatter to the contrary, but if we look at the two most significant monetary indicators, the adjusted monetary base and M1, we see that there has been very little growth in either. This is why the United States is now either in a recession or is facing one in the next few months. When a period of monetary inflation ends, economies go into recession. The American economy is slowing down, and it will continue to slow down.

Both China and India have expanded their money supplies dramatically for a decade. Both countries are now facing a crisis of rising prices. Price inflation is a major threat to the continued prosperity of both countries.

China’s government has begun to impose selective price controls. This is creating shortages and production bottlenecks. India’s government is considering doing the same thing. What both governments need to do is to tell their central banks to cease buying all government debt and all assets of any kind. The central banks need to stop inflating the money supply. But if the banks do this, both countries will experience major recessions. The governments do not want to have major recessions, but they also do not want to experience the effects of monetary inflation: price inflation. So, both of them are tempted to go back to the traditional policy of imposing price controls. This always creates shortages, and it always reduces the rate of growth of the economy. China and India are trapped.

AN INTERNATIONAL TRAP

The United States is in the same trap. The headlines scream of the skyrocketing costs of energy and food, but the broader consumer price indexes indicate slow increases: maybe 3% a year. This is because families are readjusting their budgets. As the prices of gasoline and food rise, families are forced to cut back expenditures in other areas. So, the general price indexes are not rising dramatically, but families are struggling with their budgets.

This struggle will get much worse this winter, when the price of heating oil rises. This will exacerbate the existing economic slowdown. Furthermore, the rising price of oil means a rising balance of payments deficit for the United States. Oil-exporting countries are the main beneficiaries of the rising price of oil. This means that foreign sellers of oil will get the lion’s share of the increase of the price of oil. American producers will pay for the prosperity of the oil exporting countries. They will pay in the form of reduced demand for their products.

The world is facing simultaneous recession. Meanwhile, the American financial system has absorbed hundreds of billions of dollars of IOUs from home buyers who cannot possibly pay off their debts. They are in the process of defaulting to the lenders. This has created a crisis for America’s largest banks, and for several major European banks.

We all know the story by now, but psychologically, most Americans have not adjusted to the new economic reality. Most investors have not adjusted. Yes, the American stock market is down by 20% since last October. But still they think a recovery is just around the corner. The media keep saying this. American investors still have faith that the economy is essentially healthy, that there will not be a continuing fall in the stock market, and that the economy will not go into recession and stay in the recession for two or more years.

So far, I am giving you the good news. The good news is there is going to be an international recession, rising corporate bankruptcies, bank failures, and retrenchment by consumers because they can no longer pay the rising cost of energy.

Why is this good news? Because this recession is going to put a cap on the rising cost of energy. Commodity prices will fall during the recession; this includes the price of oil.

NO MORE FISCAL WIGGLE ROOM

Americans have steadily stopped saving over the last 28 years. In 1981, they saved over 11% of their discretionary income. Today, they save nothing. They are now in full spending mode. They have borrowed money against their future income, against their home equity, and on simple promises to pay (signature loans: credit cards). They have stretched themselves thin with respect to debt.

If oil goes to $400 a barrel, or $500 a barrel, and stays there for a year, American consumers will be in panic mode. They will have to cut their budgets, and they have forgotten how to cut their budgets. They have forgotten how to save.

The strategy of the optimists is to tell us that the worst is over economically. This is the government’s official position. Chairman Ben Bernanke does not say this. He keeps hinting of more trouble to come. He keeps telling us that the Federal Reserve System is monitoring events. He keeps implying that there is some sort of rabbit still remaining in the Federal Reserve System’s hat which they can pull out if the banking system moves into paralysis mode. But he doesn’t tell us what these rabbits are, or under what conditions the FED will pull them out of its hat.

The good news regarding the economy in general is not backed up by anything specific. The government tells us that the worst is over, but there are almost no indications that the worst is over. The housing market is still in decline. Foreclosures are still rising rapidly. The lenders are not selling foreclosed properties at market prices. Instead, they keep buying back the properties. There is a growing inventory of unsold properties on the books of the lenders. Meanwhile the two major sources of liquidity for the housing market, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, are verging on bankruptcy. On Wednesday, July 9, the stock price of Freddie Mac dropped by 23%. Yet its stock price was down over 50% since January. These two stocks have continued to fall.

Everywhere we look on the horizon of the domestic economy, there is bad news. There is no sector of the economy that is improving, unless it is heavily funded by the Federal government. Health care has not slumped, because health care as funded by Medicare and other state and local government programs.

This means that the Federal deficit is going to get worse in any recession. Medicare and Social Security are non-discretionary spending items. The revenues will fall. So, the supposed strength sectors of the economy are in fact guarantees of a government fiscal crisis. If the general economy slumps, the Federal deficit is likely to go over $500 billion a year.

When the recession hits, commodity prices will fall. If the recession does not hit, commodity prices will continue to rise. But rising commodity prices will force bankruptcies in those firms that are not in a position to pass on increased costs to their consumers. This means industries associated with discretionary spending. If your company is dependent upon discretionary spending by the public, your job is at risk. If the recession hits, your company will suffer. If the recession doesn’t hit, rising commodity prices will squeeze your company. Consumers will spend their money for gasoline and heating oil, not on the products or services your company produces.

The boom economy has not been based primarily on non-discretionary income. The boom has come at the margin: those areas of the economy in which consumers do have the option of spending their money rather than saving it.

So far, I have been giving you the good news. The good news is there is going to be an international recession, rising corporate bankruptcies, bank failures, and retrenchment by consumers because they can no longer pay the rising cost of energy.

THE BAD NEWS

The bad news is that the State of Israel is increasingly likely to launch an air strike on suspected Iranian nuclear weapons production facilities.

I have discussed this before. If this happens, the price of oil will skyrocket. This will force massive readjustments of family budgets in every country on a permanent basis. This is going to force producers to fire people out of fear of bankruptcy. Consumers are going to stop buying much in the area of discretionary income. That is, those items that can be cut back will be cut back.

This could mean you.

If the State of Israel launches an attack on Iran, the economic news will get really bad really fast all over the world. So, the most important question today is whether or not the Israeli Air Force will attack Iran. From an economic standpoint, this is the crucial question.

Here, too, the mainstream media have generally promoted optimism. They suggest that the Israelis will not attack Iran. The problem is, they can’t point to anything specific that officials in the State of Israel have said that indicates that there will not be an attack. On the contrary, officials there keep saying “no comment.”

Something else is really ominous. The political leaders in the countries over which Israeli bombers will have to fly are deadly silent. They are not telling Israel in full public view that if Israel sends planes over their airspace, they will go to war with Israel. They are not saying that they are preparing right now to shoot down every Israeli plane that flies over their airspace. They are saying nothing. Why? I think the main reason is that they will not back up their words with deeds. They will not shoot down Israeli planes. They say nothing in public because they will do nothing if the overflights take place. If they go public with bellicose threats today, their own people will turn on them if they fail to back up their words with deeds if the flights take place. “You said you would do something. You did nothing. Get out!” This could start internal revolutions in the overflown countries. Silence is golden. It’s yellow, but it’s golden.

This tells me that the overflight countries’ leaders think the attack may take place. They would prefer to be accused of having been caught flat-footed by the Israeli Air Force than unwilling to back up a threat.

American officials are offering the bipartisan line: “We must settle this through diplomacy.” (To which Israeli government officials can respond, Tonto-like: “Who you mean we, paleface?”) They are not saying anything about what sanctions against the State of Israel that America will impose as soon as Israeli jets bomb Iran. That is because there will be no such sanctions.

Admiral Mullen supposedly sent Israel a statement in early July saying that the United States has not issued a green light for an Israeli attack on Iran. This supposedly means something important in itself. It means nothing in itself. What it means is the United States has not issued a red light against an Israeli attack on Iran. This means that there is no stop sign. There is no red light, so the absence of a green light means nothing.

Of course no one has said that the United States will help Israel in such an attack. So what? Israeli officials are not asking for a public offer of American help. If the United States and those governments over which the Israeli Air Force must fly are not issuing public statements at this time warning that there will be significant negative sanctions imposed on the State of Israel as soon as the attack is launched, then this is an implied green light.

Do we imagine that senior decision-makers in the Israeli government care a whit about the lack of an official American green light to their attack on Iran? They are as unconcerned about the lack of a green light as Iran is unconcerned about President Bush’s threat of sanctions if Iran does not comply with all requirements announced by the Bush administration. Iran knows what Israel knows: the Bush administration is terminal. It will end on January 20, 2009. It has no teeth. Lame ducks don’t bite. They merely squawk.

Why should we think that either Iran or Israel gives a fig about the red light/green light debate? American pundits may think this debate is important, but why should anyone with common sense think it’s important?

TIMETABLES

Iraq has announced that the United States must pull out its troops. It is demanding dates for this withdrawal. The Bush administration is pooh-poohing all this, and will not under any circumstances announce such a timetable, but so what? There is a timetable for the Bush administration’s withdrawal: January 20, 2009.

This means that the United States is going to be pressured by Iraq’s government to leave Iraq from now on. Most of the troops will be forced to leave Iraq unless things change dramatically. Then what will be done with the 14 major military bases that have been built?

As the pressure increases to force us to leave Iraq, and as the pressure from the Taliban increases in Afghanistan, and as the pressure from voters increases to get our troops out of both countries, and as the likelihood of the election of Obama increases, decision-makers in the State of Israel are caught between the proverbial rock and a hard place.

If the United States pulls out of the region, the State of Israel will be left high and dry. But there is another possible scenario. If Iran’s surrogate Shia forces in the region take on the United States troops in reaction to an Israeli attack on Iran, American public opinion will swing in favor of keeping the troops there, no matter what. “Who do those Iranians think they are? We issued no green light to the Israelis. It’s not our fault.” If Iran begins to supply weapons to Shia forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the American death rate goes up, then American voters will switch back to a pro-war position. At least, this is a possibility. Americans do not like to be pushed around.

Any escalation of war in the region will create havoc for the supply of oil. The world economy is moving into recession already; it may go into a true depression if oil goes to $500 and stays there. So, the stakes are enormous.

The outcome is no longer in the hands of the United States, Europe, Asia, or any of the other outsiders to the Middle East. The outcome, or at least the trigger, is completely in the hands of the decision-makers in the State of Israel. They hold the gun.

Unless the United States and Western Europe tell the decision-makers in the State of Israel that Europe and the United States will impose significant negative sanctions after an attack on Iran, then decision-makers there are going to make a decision based on the self-interest of the ruling party, not the self-interest of American or European voters. They are going to take care of their perceived problem, exactly as we would expect any other national political leaders would take care of their problem.

That’s why all talk about war being a threat to the self-interest of the whole makes sense only if the Israelis conclude that the economic crisis will be so severe that it will take them down in the whirlpool of economic collapse. They are not afraid of military retaliation from Iran. They are also not afraid of the United States, Europe, Asia, or any other coalition that does not have the backbone to say in advance that there will be major sanctions placed on the State of Israel if there is an attack on Iran.

This is why I am concerned about the threat of an Israeli attack on Iran. I am in no way calmed by statements attributed to Admiral Mullen. When Admiral Mullen holds a press conference and says publicly that there is no green light for an attack by the Israeli Air Force on Iran, and that any flyover of Iraq by Israeli planes will lead to shoot downs of Israeli planes by American planes, then I will stop worrying about the threat of an attack on Iran by the Israeli Air Force. How likely do you think such a press conference is?

We must face reality: the decision to go to war with Iran is 100% in the hands of Israeli decision-makers. It is not in the hands of the United States, Europe, or Asia. In other words, the economic fate of the West over the next decade is now in the hands of decision-makers who are concerned about the long-term survival of their own country. They are concerned because they do not want to have Iran in the possession of nuclear weapons. Both candidates for President have said the same thing.

We have seen saber-rattling by the Iranians with the film-doctored test of the missiles this week. These missiles are militarily useless as weapons against the Israelis. They are as irrelevant militarily as Germany’s V-2 missiles were in 1945. They cannot inflict enough damage to make a difference, unless they are used against Saudi Arabian oil fields. But, if they had a nuclear warhead, that would make all the difference. The Israelis know this. So, they are going to make their decision in terms of this long-term threat.

The main inhibition against an attack is the possible collapse of the Western economy, which buys Israeli-produced goods. This threat may be sufficient to keep them from attacking. I dearly hope that it is. But it is naïve to believe that they are going to make their decision because of worries about whether Admiral Mullen has issued a green light or not.

CONCLUSION

When you invest your money, do not ignore the worst-case scenario. Set aside some of your money on the assumption that the worst-case will come true. This is what any military strategist does. He makes his decisions in terms of what the enemy can do, not what it would be convenient for the enemy to do.

I suggest that you be aware of this threat. I suggest that you sit down with the family budget and outline what your response would be if the price of gasoline were $10 a gallon or $15 a gallon or $20 a gallon. What would you do? I know what you would do. You would drive less.

Ignore the happy-face assessments of the geopolitical strategists. Ignore the happy-face assessment of the Secretary of the Treasury, Henry “Goldman Sachs” Paulson. These assessments are being issued to keep panic from spreading.

I am doing my best to encourage people to take rational steps with some of their liquid assets: to hedge themselves against the possibility that there will be an attack on Iran before January 20, 2009. This doesn’t mean that I think such an attack is a sure thing. Decision-makers in the State of Israel are going to have to live with $400 oil, just like all the rest of us. They may decide that this risk is too great. They may decide to put up with the threat of a future nuclear-armed Iran. I won’t bet all of my money on this. I don’t think you should either.

July 12, 2008

Gary North [send him mail] is the author of Mises on Money. Visit http://www.garynorth.com.

William Kurtz


When we invest in stock indexes, or in stocks themselves, we are investing in ephemeral things or in pieces of paper that represent something else.  We can’t very well touch, pick up, or taste a stock index.  It exists only in the mind or on graph paper or on our computer screen.  However, when we invest in Commodities, we are dealing with control over things we use every day – staples such as wheat, corn, coffee, sugar, beef, and cotton.  There is something much more “personal” about it.

One major difference between trading stock indexes or stocks (on the one hand) and the Commodities (on the other) is that stock and stock index trading is largely driven by emotion, while trading in Commodities is mostly driven by the law of supply and demand.  This, in turn, depends upon weather patterns, rainfall, carryover of last year’s harvest, amount of acreage planted, animal fertility levels, availability of labor and transportation, variations in worldwide usage, and general economic conditions.

Since emotional (or psychological) input has much less applicability to Commodities trading than it does to stock trading, it follows that we can more accurately predict the future course of Commodities prices.  We can learn to interpret the patterns of the up-and-down waves of prices and of certain Indicators which we read together with price information in order to quite closely forecast what prices will do in the future – especially in the immediate future, such as tomorrow morning.

Whether we think prices will go up – or go down – doesn’t make any difference.  We can place our bet either way.

All of us have heard horror stories about a load of wheat being unceremoniously dumped in the trader’s front yard.  That could happen, but you’d really have to work at it.  A little common sense and attention should serve to keep you away from that risk.  And, if you stick to buying options and avoid getting involved in contracts, at least while you learn the business, it could never happen.  The beauty of buying options is that you hold all the cards.  You put your money on the table and all the cards are yours.  At the same time, the absolute limit of your risk is the amount which you paid for the option.  You have the right, but not the obligation, to perform.  The party who has sold you the option has all of the risk.

Here’s the really great aspect of Commodity trading: Even before you begin to think about committing real dollars, you can reduce your investment risk to zero by paper-trading to your heart’s content while you learn the ropes.  What a concept!  Learn something new and fascinating without risking even a nickel.

And, truly, this is a fascinating world.  It is immensely satisfying to place a bet on the direction of a Commodity’s price – even a paper bet! – and have it go your way.

This should not be done haphazardly.  We know that prices move in waves; that the waves move in patterns; and that the patterns are repetitive and roughly predictable in size and direction as time progresses.  We do not simply stick a wet thumb in the air and guess at it; we make our moves with a basic understanding of Candlestick price patterns and of the various Indicators which throw off clues regarding the next likely direction of prices.  So, it’s not guesswork at all.  We deal in probabilities, with knowledge of these helping hands right there in the forefront guiding us to decisions that make sense.  It’s a gathering-in of all of the evidence before the investment decision is made.

Over many years, I have found that trading Commodities is truly an enjoyable intellectual exercise that, when done conservatively and smartly, can be a real moneymaker, at a level or risk which is strictly controllable by the trader.

The One


Bain Capital = help China turn the US into a yard sale

In June 2005, Bain teamed up with Haier Group, China’s largest appliance maker, and private equity firm Blackstone Group in an attempt to acquire Maytag for over $1 billion.

On September 28, 2007, Bain and the Chinese networking company Huawei Technologies acquired 3Com for $2.2 billion in cash.

Bain Capital’s family of funds includes private equity, venture capital, public equity and leveraged debt assets.

Absolute Return Capital (ARC) is the global macro affiliate of Bain Capital managing approximately $600 million of capital. ARC manages assets in fixed income, equity and commodity markets to produce attractive risk-adjusted returns while maintaining low correlation to traditional investments.

Bain Capital Private Equity has raised eight funds and invested in more than 200 companies. The private equity activity includes leveraged buyouts and growth capital in a wide variety of industries.

Bain Capital (Europe) Limited, an affiliate of Bain Capital, LLC, is dedicated to investment opportunities in the European market. Based in London and Munich, and building off Bain Capital’s successful European investment track record since 1987.

Bain Capital Ventures is the venture capital arm of Bain Capital, focused on seed through late-stage growth equity investing in software, hardware, information, healthcare, and technology-driven business services companies.

David Brown


The key to successful investing is developing your knowledge in the markets and to take things slowly and methodically. Commodities trading is no different. It is an exciting market which, if you are preapred to put in the time and effort, can be very lucrative, but always be aware that risks lurk in the shadows just like any other investment. 

Physical Trading

Physical commodities trading is buying and selling the actual commodity itself not some sort of derivative instrument like a futures contract. There are obvious downsides to this method namely storage costs, insurance costs and shipping costs.

The physical market, for our purposes, focuses on those commodities that are easily stored, bought and traded for the average investor. These are such things as Gold, Platinum, Palladium and Silver.

The most popular method of trading such items on a retail basis is in the purchase of coins. There are many companies on the web that provide services for the purchase of coins for collectors and speculators.

The internet, of course, has given investors many options for the purchase, storage and trading of gold coins however, our favourite example of trading gold on the web is Bullion Vault. They allow the purchase and storage of gold in small quantities and have an efficient trading system. They hold $290mn of gold for clients and appear to have a very good reputation.

Leverage

If you didn’t know the term ‘leverage’ before the current financial mess, you do now. For those who need a refresher, here is how it works. Let’s say you buy £100,000 of gold and whomever you buy it off only needs you to put down a 10% deposit, £10,000. Let’s say gold goes up 10%. You now have gold worth £110,000, if you sell it now you pay back the £90,000 you borrowed and you get your original £10k back along with your £10k profit. Basically you have turned a 10% gain in the price to a 100% gain on your investment.

Obviously if the price dropped 10% you lose your money, hence the mess that some are in at the moment.

Physical Commodities on Leverage.

There are still some companies around that provide leverage on physical commodities across a range of products, however, the costs associated with trading, such as interest on loans, storage and insurance fees have made the product less attractive to the active trader. Having filled a gap in the market for some time the product was overtaken by some of the instruments mentioned below.

ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds)

More accurately described as ‘Exchange Traded Commodities’ these instruments  take into account all the fees such as storage etc associated with trading. They trade like shares are liquid.

An Exchange Traded Commodity is an investment vehicle that tracks the performance of an underlying commodity or basket of commodities. ETCs work on exactly the same principle as ETFs – with the ETC tracking the performance of a single underlying commodity or a group of associated commodities. Single commodity ETCs follow the spot-price of a single commodity, whilst ‘index-tracking ETCs’ follow the movement of a group of associated commodities, such as cattle, energy or livestock.

ETCs offer the commodities trader a number of inherent advantages without the associated vagaries of trading an individual stock:

Direct exposure to the commodities markets – the value of your investment will rise and fall in direct proportion to the price of the underlying commodity.

Liquidity – ETCs are ‘open ended’ securities, which are created and redeemed on-demand. This means that the supply of ETCs is unlimited and that price changes will accurately mirror developments in the price of the underlying commodity.

Stamp duty & CGT – ETCs are not shares and so trades are exempt from stamp duty. Furthermore, ETCs can be traded within ISA accounts, allowing you to shelter your profit from Capital Gains Tax.

Low dealing costs – ETCs are traded on the regular stock exchange, making them both accessible and affordable – they can be traded through your share dealing service for a commission.

Portfolio diversification – ETCs give broad representation across entire commodity sectors and different geographic regions.

Futures

A futures contract is an agreement to buy or sell your chosen commodity at a specific date in the future – at today’s prevailing market price. These markets are highly liquid and the contracts can be sold on again at any point before the final delivery date, i.e. the day when the farmer or miner will deliver the raw materials to the person holding the contract.

The producers and end-users are still present in today’s markets, but it is the traders and speculators who are now responsible for most of the volume that keeps the market liquid.

The main benefit of trading futures is that you are making a direct investment into the underlying raw material and your future profit or loss is entirely dependent upon fluctuations in the underlying commodity price.

Going back to leverage, most futures trading is done ‘on margin’, which dramatically increases potential profits (and losses, remember).

Shares

Exposure to the commodities market can be gained from buying and selling companies whose business it is to mine, distribute or trade in commodities that you are interested in.

The shares are, generally, liquid and accessible for trading, the problem, however, is that there are many other factors that could effect the share price that may not have anything to do with the underlying commodity. These could be management issues, cash flow, macro economic issues and geo-political issues.

CFDs and Spread betting.

CFDs and Spread betting are easily accessible trading instruments which are essentially derivatives of many of the above, however spreads and dealing costs can be harsh to investors.

Technical Phrases

You will hear such phrases as ‘contango’ and ‘backwardation’.

Contango is a term used in the futures market to describe an upward sloping forward curve (as in the normal yield curve). One says that such a forward curve is “in contango” (or sometimes “contangoed”).

Formally, it is the situation where, and the amount by which, the price of a commodity for future delivery is higher than the spot price, or a far future delivery price higher than a nearer future delivery.

Backwardation is a futures market term: the situation in which, and the amount by which, the price of a commodity for future delivery is lower than the spot price, or a far future delivery price lower than a nearer future delivery. One says that the forward curve is “in backwardation” (or sometimes: “backwardated”).

Commodities trading has many aspects that set it apart from trading other markets and for those that become learned in the trading of the instruments it can be lucrative. Commodity traders over the last few years have seen huge swigs in price which have lead to large profits (and no doubt some large losses).

Currently the global market in commodities is in a state of flux. Gold, for example, is seen as a safe haven against inflation and uncertain times, hence it recent volatility.

Having worked in commodities for some years it was always noted that volatility is our friend, whether a price is going up or down there is money to be made, when commodities are flat there is not much action and the cost of trading out ways the potential profits.

For the foreseeable future volatility is definitely here to stay. Stock market issues and global recessionary fears on the one side and continued development of emerging markets using vast amounts of the world resources on the other, will see volatility in this market for many years to come. This, therefore, as a market to learn about and trade ,is a very interesting and potentially lucrative proposition.

As with all trading, however, there is a very real possibility that trading commodities, especially on leverage, could lose your portfolio a lot of money and you should be aware that it is highly risky. Do not risk more money than you can afford to lose and make sure you have a system that allows you to use limits and stops to contain this risk.

The online trading system available from HF Markets allows you to trade all of the above with assistance, if required, from a professional regulated broker who can guide your initial trading strategies and help you become familiar with trading this exciting area of investment.

Roger L


Is it financialy beneficial to purchase commodities such as gold and platinum and resell when the prices fluctuates where a profit can be made. Even with respect to foreign exchange.
Is the stockmarket gambling for the private individual or is it a real option? Example: They say if you want to make money on the stock market it needs to be long term and it needs to be invested in so called blue chip companies where risk is low and so in turn is the reward. So would it not be better to contain ones money in the money market fund where a guaranteed interest exists and there is no risk involved , with the returns equaling those of the abovementioned low risk long term investments. Youre thoughts pls(Pls also bear in mind that this is with respect to private finances and not of macro-economical scenarios)

Erik Cocks


Commodities have become an attractive investment in recent years, even for those who may not know much about them but would like to participate in the profit potential from dramatic price advances posted by energy, grains, metals and other commodities, lifting them to the highest overall levels in more than 30 years.

Fundamental factors based on simple supply and demand account for much of increased price activity, of course, but other factors are behind these price moves as well – factors you should understand if you are one those investors thinking about putting some of your money into commodities. Although commodities are a hot topic for investors, it is also an area where newcomers can get stung if they are not aware of some pitfalls that can trap the unwary.

So let’s first look at some of the factors promoting this increased interest in commodities and then, if you are interested in trying to tap profit opportunities in this area, at some instruments you can use to exploit this possibility.

Getting ‘real’

You are probably well aware of the “dot.com bubble” that took stock market indexes to record-high levels in the late 1990s into early 2000. The stock market was the place to be for many investors, evident by the growing amount of money that poured into mutual funds, 401(k)s and other investments tied to the value of stocks. Investors enjoyed the run of a bull market since 1982 as they focused on investments in paper instruments rather than physical products.

As with most meteoric rises, however, the accelerated rise in stock prices at the end of the 1990s couldn’t last forever and they began to fade. Then came the Twin Towers disaster on Sept. 11, 2001, the followup U.S. war on terror marked by armed incursions into Afghanistan and Iraq, accounting and other corporate fraud scandals (Enron, Worldcomm, et. al.) and a slowdown in global economies, all of which contributed to a decline in stock indexes, especially those reflecting technology stocks.

Many investors became disenchanted with prospects in stocks and began to look elsewhere to place their funds. Some put their money into housing and other real estate investments, causing a building boom and rapidly escalating property prices. China’s economic growth of more than 9% annually and the rebuilding required after two devastating hurricane seasons in a row along the Gulf Coast added to the huge demand for cement, copper and other building materials of all types (for more on the economic effect of hurricanes, see www.hurricaneomics.com).

Oil’s key role

Adding to the expanding worldwide demand for commodities, the ongoing war on terrorism re-emphasizes U.S. vulnerability to disruptions in oil supplies from the volatile Middle East, and prices skyrocketed above $80 per barrel in 2006. The higher oil prices get, the more attractive alternate energy sources look. The favorite alternative that has emerged from the pack is ethanol, produced primarily from corn.

With a big boost from Congressional mandates for ethanol production and usage, prices for corn began to shoot up last fall to the highest levels in more than 10 years, topping $4 a bushel after years of being closer to $2. Ethanol became the buzz word of the day, reinforced by President Bush’s comments about energy in his State of the Union message. When the government is pushing something, it’s best to trade in line with the government’s wishes, as interest rate traders know from watching actions of the Federal Reserve.

As demand for corn for ethanol grows, the higher corn prices may be driven and the more likely farmers will plant more corn at the expense of crops such as soybeans and wheat as crops compete economically for acreage. Livestock and poultry producers will also feel the effect of higher corn prices as will America’s grocery shoppers when they go to the meat counter.

With what some describe as a “housing bubble” cooling and investments in stocks still not having overwhelming appeal, investors have turned to where the hottest action is – real things like commodities. Commodities have particularly become the darlings of a rapidly proliferating number of hedge funds, which can trade anything, adding further fuel to the general advance in commodity prices.

Ready or not . . .

Some commodities have backed off from their price peaks, leading some to believe that a “commodity bubble” may be breaking just like the bubbles in stocks and housing. Never has an understanding of intermarket relationships been more important to traders as the domino effect of commodity price moves extends throughout a number of commodities.

Where prices of commodities now stand in the overall economic scenario is just one of the issues investors have to face today. With all the media buzz, is there still time to jump on the commodities bandwagon? If so, should you venture into futures or options based on commodities or get into one of the new commodity-based hedge funds or exchange-traded funds (ETFs) or invest only in stocks of companies involved in raw commodities?

Commodity futures trading involves an agreement by an investor to purchase or sell a specific amount of a commodity for delivery at a specific time in the future. The key points are the price at which you initiate a trade and the time that is left until the contract expires, at which time both parties are obligated to fulfill the terms of the contract unless they have offset or liquidated their position. If you think prices will rise before the contract expires, you buy or go long. If you think prices will fall from the current level, you can sell or go short as easily as you can buy.

ETFs are set up to achieve the same general return as an index – for example, the Spyders (SPY) ETF invests in all the stocks contained in the S&P 500 Index to mimic the results of the index. Commodity-based ETFs can invest in commodities directly through futures or in stocks from a sector influenced by what happens in commodities – a gold ETF based on a basket of gold mining stocks, for example. The advantages of ETFs are that they trade like a stock, don’t have the high leverage or risk that futures do and can diversify into a number of commodities or stocks that can dilute the effect of adverse moves in one commodity or stock.

Like any development that capitalizes on the hottest new trend, new ETFs are being offered every day. You have lots of choices so sift through them carefully. Some ETFs may be thinly traded so you need to understand what this investment can do before getting into it.

The commodities-related investment that may be most familiar – and, therefore, most prudent – for many investors involves investing in those companies that are most influenced by prices of commodities. If you think prices of copper will go up, for example, buy those stocks that would benefit most from higher copper prices. Ditto for oil prices or grain prices. Again, you have a number of choices so you will have to do your research to see which prices will mean the most to which companies.

Futures pros and cons

Of the various choices, futures are the most direct play on price movement – and usually carry the most risk. The major lure of trading futures is the ability to make a large amount of money in a short time with a relatively small down payment. For example, to trade a 5,000-bushel contract of corn worth $20,000 with corn priced at $4 a bushel, the Chicago Board of Trade currently requires a minimum margin or good-faith deposit of $1,350 – less than 7% of the value of the contract. If you invest in stocks, you have to put up at least 50% of the value of the shares.

Every 1-cent change in the price of corn amounts to a $50 change in the value of a corn futures contract. If you buy corn futures and the price goes up 20 cents, your profit is $1,000. That’s a gain of nearly 75% on your initial margin of $1,350! And a 20-cent move in corn prices in today’s market conditions is very possible, sometimes in just one day. No wonder futures trading is so attractive to investors looking at commodities compared to other investment areas.

But beware. There is another side of the corn that a newcomer to futures needs to recognize before becoming involved in this type of trading. While the futures market can boost your account quickly, it can also diminish your account just as quickly. Commodities are generally much more volatile than stocks, making them a rough-and-tumble marketplace for the inexperienced.

Timing is a critical factor in trading futures. In fact, you can be right about the direction of prices but wrong about the timing of the move and lose a significant amount of money. That’s true in any market but is compounded in futures due to the larger increments and high leverage involved in futures. Even a relatively small adverse price move against your position can deal a big blow to your trading account.

Still, for those who can tolerate the risk, the possibility of large profits has an obvious appeal for investors seeking more action for their investment money. If you do decide to trade futures, you can improve your odds for success by first learning about and understanding how futures markets operate, then getting reliable information about markets and what is moving them from sources such as www.tradingeducation.com). , a free educational web site.